A/B Test Sample Size Calculator 2026
Calculate the required sample size per variant and estimated time to statistical significance for valid A/B tests. Enter your baseline conversion rate, minimum detectable effect (MDE) and confidence level to get the minimum visitors needed before you can trust your results — and avoid false positives from premature peeking.
Key Inputs
- Baseline conversion rate % (current page performance)
- Minimum detectable effect (MDE) % — smallest improvement worth detecting
- Statistical confidence level: 90%, 95% or 99%
- Test type: two-tailed (can detect positive or negative change) or one-tailed
- Daily visitor count (for estimated days to significance)
What You'll Get
- Required sample size per variant (visitors or sessions)
- Total sample size across all variants
- Estimated days to reach significance at current traffic
- Statistical power at the given parameters (typically 80%)
Important Notes & UK Benchmarks
Standard A/B testing parameters: 95% confidence, two-tailed test, 80% statistical power, MDE 10–20%. Smaller MDE requires exponentially larger sample sizes. At 3% baseline conversion, detecting a 10% relative improvement (0.3pp absolute) requires ~10,000 visitors per variant at 95% confidence. Running tests for at least 1 full business week is mandatory — weekly patterns in traffic affect results significantly. Peeking before reaching required sample size inflates false positive rate from 5% to 20–30%.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long should an A/B test run?
At minimum 1 full business week to capture weekly traffic patterns (weekday vs. weekend behaviour often differs significantly). Use the sample size calculator to determine minimum duration: required visitors per variant ÷ daily visitors to that page. Ideally run for 2–4 weeks for robust results. If your site has very high traffic (100,000+ visitors/month per page), you may reach significance in days — but still run for at least 7 days. Never stop early just because one variant appears to be winning.
What is MDE (Minimum Detectable Effect)?
MDE is the smallest improvement you want your test to reliably detect. If you set MDE at 10% relative improvement (e.g. 3% baseline → 3.3% test), the calculator tells you the sample size needed to detect that change with the chosen confidence level. Smaller MDE requires much larger samples — detecting 2% absolute improvement requires far more traffic than detecting 10% improvement. Set MDE based on the minimum change that would be commercially meaningful, not the change you hope to see.
What is statistical significance in A/B testing?
Statistical significance (confidence level) is the probability that the observed difference between variants is not due to random chance. 95% confidence means there is a 5% chance of a false positive — concluding one variant is better when the difference is actually random noise. 99% confidence reduces this to 1% but requires larger sample sizes. Most practitioners use 95% as the standard. Note: significance alone does not prove practical importance — a statistically significant 0.1% improvement may not be worth the development cost to implement.
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